I THİNK THERE IS TACTICAL DEFENCE, AND STRATEGİC DEFENCE SYSTEMS IN TERRITORY OF ARMENIA. TACTICAL DEFENCE SYSTEMS ARE GOVERNED BY ARMENIAN FORCES, AND STRATEGIC DEFENCE SYSTEMS GOVERNED BY RUSSIA. I'M SURE THAT AN INTERCEPTOR LIKE MIG-29 (AZERBAİJANY) WILL BE NON SENSE ON THE ARMENIAN TERRITORY, BECAUSE IT IS ONLY AN INTERCEPTOR. NOT, AN STRATEGİC ATTACK AİRCRAFT.

John A, I agree with your sanity of the enemy comment but how can you say that ground forces do not play a large role in fighting wars? Azerbaijan does not have the missile capability which Armenia has. Armenia has had "ballistic" missile capability for the last 10 years. CIA think tanks were reporting that Armenia can destroy the Baku oil fields in seconds and this was 10 years ago. John, if you have been to karabagh and the occupied territories you will notice that Karabagh is a mountainous fort, surrounded by flat lands. Those flat lands are the occupied territories of Agdam, Fizuli and Zangelan. Azeri ground forces will have to penetrate Armenian ground installations in the occupied territories, then move in to the Mountains of Karabagh. It is a logistical nightmare for them. They will have to win an offensive war and at the same time, stave of Armenian Counter attacks on all fronts. If the Azeris have missiles on the flat lands looking up at Karabagh, dont you think the Armenians have their own missiles staring down on the Azeri positions from the mountains? Armenians defensive positions in Karabagh and the occupied territories far outweigh Azerbaijans offensive capabilities whether they be conventional or not. As for bombing Yerevan in 15 minutes, I can assure you that once Armenian radar picks up any movement towards Armenia by air, a massive missile counter attack will occur on Baku and WWIII will be on the horizon. This is where your "sanity of the enemy" comment comes in to play. Come over here and we can trek over to Karabagh and the Occ. Territories together an I will show you.

Sos thinks that 15 minutes to bomb Yerevan is not feasible and prefers instead to rely on Armenia's "SS Air Defence Systems". It wasn't too long ago that a pip-squeak German pilot landed a plane right on red-square! Where was Russia's famous air-defence systems then? http://tinyurl.com/ygl7jaa Maybe Azerbaijan will not dare to bomb Yerevan but the point is Yerevan and Baku are in walking distance from each other and although Armenia may have courageous ground forces, even they cannot run faster than missiles. Ground forces no longer have the role which they used to have in fighting wars, and I would rather try to negotiate with an enemy that has more foreign currency from oil revenues than Armenia will earn in the next 100 years. The sanity of your enemey is also something which should be considered, as 'Random Armenia' has referred to.

What a brilliant armenian analist? My admiration grows with the minute with great astonishment and amusement for such analist!!! I would say keep on sleeping and maybe sing a lullaby for the armenian public for not to wake them up. Current armenia is completely landlocked, even the Russian Army can't even eqiuped its bases without using Turkish airspace, how in hell are they going to supply their forces for to sustain a war of couple of days? Azerbaijan spents 4 times the amount of money that armenia is able to spent on arming their forces. A war can only be won with essential logistical help. So keep on sleeping genius!!! The times of Russian help is gone forever!!!

Hey John A., You cant win a war just by bombing a city my friend. Ground forces!! Can Azerbaijan invade Armenia, NO. Can Azerbaijan get through Armenia's SS Air Defense systems, I think not. Do some homework before making silly comments like it would take Azerbaijan 15 minutes to bomb Yerevan. Get a grip.

John, I was thinking the same thing. How did this political analyst make this military analysis? He's also assuming that the Azeri leadership is sane. He's assuming that they won't try and pull off a Saakashvili. Even if the Karabagh forces can repel an attack today, it will be at a cost. The temptation to settle this militarily grows with every year. If the surrounding areas are returned, that will mean a longer border to defend, and therefore a bigger temptation to attack. Nobody on this planet can guarantee physically guarantee that Azeris will not attack even after any sort of agreements are made. Weapons for Armenia an Karabagh come from Russia, and therefore they have strings they can pull on. Military equipment wear out and need replacement.

Richard Giragosian considers it possible that the current Armenian-Turkish negotiations may eventually lead to a renewed Karabakh war, which he estimates will take the Azerbaijani army some 10-12 years to get prepared for, because the Armenian army is incomparably stronger. Where does Giragosian get his information from about the respective strengths of the two armies? Armenia hasn't got 10-12 years to sort out it's disputes with neighbouring countries and in fact it would take about 15 minutes for an Azeri war plan to bomb Yerevan. Giragossian should remember that Armenia does not have oil revenues to spend on buying aircraft or equipment and that 'winning' a war with Azerbaijan is not feasible and should not even be considered. That is why Armenia is attempting to do deals with it's neighbours.

In case both Turkey and Armenia ratify the so-called Armenia-Turkey Protocols, a new and larger war will be starting in South Caucasus and the Moddle East. Armenia, as always, will be the bridge (read the stage). jeshmarid@yahoo.com

The day Karabakh concedes an inch of its Saint Land, a new war is going to start in the Middle East, a larger one. In that situation, the U.S. will try to save her burning reputation in Iraq and Afghanistan and transmit her war into South Caucasus. The United States of America will not succeed, because of the Turkish factor. jeshmarid@yahoo.com