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Analysis: Would Azerbaijan give up oil in exchange for Karabakh?

Despite the statements quite frequently voiced by the Azeri authorities on the possibility of resuming hostilities against Armenia, it is yet extremely premature to speak about prospects of a new war. There are no objective prerequisites in current circumstances that would indicate launch of war in the near future.

Azerbaijan is building its statehood on oil, and oil tariffs nowadays reflect quite positively on main economic indicators. In that view it is highly unlikely that Azerbaijan would go for a cardinal change of situation, especially with most indefinite outcome prospects.

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2
27.02.2011 10:47
Aris, This is a very interesting article. However, I cannot help but disagree with you to an extent. Yes, through your article you have revealed that starting this new war with Karapagh will pose severe economic and political problems for Azerbaijan, however, it is my opinion that we should not take this chance and run with it. Although from an outside view it may seem like an uneducated move [on Azerbaijan’s part] to start this new war, we cannot let down our guards that easily. If we readily believe and think the way that you have proposed, it may end up backfiring on us, and as Antranig mentioned, they may end up doing worse than resuming war. No matter how simple your proposed reasoning may sound, I believe that we cannot take a risk and blindly trust the possibility that Azerbaijan may not start the new war because of the potential economic and political problems it may ensue for them.
1
21.07.2010 12:24
Aris, no disrespect intended, but please review Armenian history once more before you start to let your guard down. The minute we think as your say, they WILL do worse than "resume war".
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