Analysis: In thaw with Turkey, Russia maintains alliance with Armenia

Analysis: In thaw with Turkey, Russia maintains alliance with Armenia

ITAR-TASS/Photolure

President of Russia Medvedev and Prime Minister of Turkey Erdogan during their meeting in Moscow.

For more than two centuries Russia and Turkey waged wars for political influence in the Middle East. Today, they maintain their aspirations for power over as much territory as possible in this intricate region of the world, but strategies have changed.

Lately the sides appear resolved to pursue joint interests.

Turkey today is trying to get maximum benefit from its geographic location linking Asia and Europe, both through land and sea.

Toward that aim, Turkey is simultaneously engaged in two competing projects – European gas project Nabucco (a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey into central Europe, bypassing Russia) and the Russo-Italian South Stream project (supplying Russian and Central Asian gas to Europe via the Black Sea).

It was for the purpose of coordinating certain issues with Russia that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid an official visit to Moscow January 13.

It became clear following Erdogan’s talks with the Russian president and the prime minister that Moscow wants South Stream to become operational before the commissioning of its rival Nabucco.

Turkey, meanwhile, is not in a hurry to promise anything and even is trying to involve Iran in Nabucco.

Recently Ankara suddenly grew friendly with Tehran, its main rival in establishing influence in the Middle East, recognizing publicly the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program and denouncing Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Last October the overtures yielded an agreement on joint development of Southern Pars, a gas deposit in Iran.

Russian authorities remind that apart from South Stream, Moscow and Ankara are linked by other large-scale projects, such as the construction of the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the working gas pipeline Blue Stream and a prospective pipeline, Blue Stream-2 (to supply Russian gas to Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon and Syria).

Moscow expects that Ankara will give preference to the Russian-Italian project. Among the countries that can be considered to be participants of this project today are Serbia, Hungary, Greece, Slovenia, Romania and France (represented by EDF).

Turkey, meanwhile, appears to be ready to open the Nabucco project to Russian participation.

All these key issues are not being publicized for understandable reasons. Primarily, the Russian-Turkish energy projects have potential to confuse European fuel policy.

Judging by the statements made by the Turkish prime minister in Moscow, he doesn’t mind playing political cards in his energy diplomacy.

There are grounds to think that in exchange of a possible priority in favor of South Stream, Erdogan demanded that Moscow regard the Karabakh problem and prospects of the Armenian-Turkish relations within one package.

However, Moscow has spoken against the policy of Ankara that deems that “Armenian-Turkish relations cannot develop without a solution to the Karabakh problem”.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin stated immediately after his meeting with Erdogan that one should not put the resolution of the Karabakh conflict and the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations into one basket.

“Russia will welcome any positive solution both regarding the Karabakh conflict and the settlement of the Armenian-Turkish relations,” said Putin Wednesday. “But one should not link them within one package.”

Just like late last year in Washington, Erdogan showed his consistency in this matter, and speaking at the Moscow State University, said: “The territories of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenians must be liberated.”

Moscow, though, was naturally ready for such a scenario and in order to emphasize the strategic nature of its relations with Armenia invited, on that very day, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan to pay a visit to the Russian capital.

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov emphasized that “Russia and Armenia are strategic partners in the military sphere.”

And on January 13, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (who, by the way, has Armenian roots) arrived in Yerevan where he held a series of meetings with Armenian leadership.

Special correspondent of the Russian Expert Online publication Yevgeniya Novikova wrote on Wednesday that “this trip is closely connected with today’s visit of Erdogan: Russia must by all means make a courtesy to its ally Armenia and show that it still loves, values and respects it.”