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The change of public and political attitudes is conditioned by several factors, of which is also the de-facto suspension of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and its uncertain prospects in light of mounting tensions in relations between Turkey and Israel. The growing differences with its traditional ally in the region also appear to have hamstrung Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus and, in particular, its recent desire to have a role in resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. By losing its “Turkish wing”, the Karabakh subject has not become less urgent in Armenian politics, but it has certainly returned to its “normal course”, which has never been of great consequence to the local politics in Armenia.

Political parties in Armenia have used this respite – and the local public’s reasonable attention to local issues – to try to boost their chances at the next general elections, the nearest of which is in about two years’ time. And while doing so, some political forces have not excluded the possibility of snap polls either.

In what many analysts believe was a “false start” in the campaign for the 2012 parliamentary elections, a governing coalition member party, Prosperous Armenia, and the main opposition alliance, Armenian National Congress, held large events in Armenia’s second largest city of Gyumri in May. Meanwhile, the governor of the Shirak province, of which Gyumri is the central city, was replaced by a powerful law-enforcement official, Ashot Giziryan, which was taken by many observers as the aspiration of the majority Republican Party of Armenia to shore up its positions in the northern constituencies.

Thirdly, the “emotional vacuum” appeared to have been refilled late last month as the traditional magnet of public indignation – Freedom Square (Opera House) – was reopened after remaining closed to the public (and hence for political gatherings) for nearly two years in view of a major construction project. This square is not just a simple place, but rather it is symbolic as a high energy gathering point for discontent.

It is Freedom Square that was meant to fill in “the deficit of emotions and protests” and raise to a new level the tensions that seemed to have subsided.

There is another circumstance to be taken into consideration. The radical opposition Armenian National Congress did not just sit by and do nothing during these six months, it has been mapping out a plan of achieving a power change called “100 Steps”. This was repeatedly stated in public.

It can be said a new stage of taking the first steps of that plan has begun today.

First of all they are testing ground for the current level of readiness of Armenia’s law-enforcement, punitive and judicial authorities to respond to possible acts of mass disobedience.

All the recent actions in the city center were guided by that very circumstance – scuffles between the police and separate protestors, as well as the detentions of some radical opposition youngsters.

It is all so obvious that even the Armenian Ombudsman, whose position can hardly be described as pro-government, stated that “not always in these clashes the police is to be blamed, and one has to have the courage to admit it”.

The first two weeks illustrated – for the opposition – that everything is ‘in order’: Armenia’s political elite is so afraid of international criticism that the police will touch a demonstrator only after long and futile persuasion and requests.

The indulgence of the police could be to radical oppositionists’ advantage later should they manage to mount the size crowds that rallied in 2008.

The second step of the “100 Steps” plan was ANC’s legal action against former president Robert Kocharyan at the International Court of Justice in the Hague. The opposition daily newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak said it’s a 280-page lawsuit with a 4,500-page attachment of supporting documentation, among which there is detailed information about more than 40 cases currently at the European Court of Human Rights. Besides documents, the file includes footage and testimony first of all related to the March 1-2, 2008 events in Yerevan (in which law-enforcement used deadly force to quell post-election protests of opposition supporters). The opposition claims Kocharyan, who left the president’s office after two consecutive five-year terms in April 2008, is responsible for “issuing a criminal order” to use force against demonstrators, which resulted in ten deaths.

The revenge seekers talked about the “necessity of calling Robert Kocharyan to international criminal account” yet a long time ago. In February 2003 (five years before the March events) David Shahnazaryan drew comparisons between the second Armenian president and either a former Bosnian Serb leader accused of war crimes Rodovan Karadzic or Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein (who was executed for crimes against humanity in late 2006).

Earlier this year in March, on the second anniversary of the dramatic events in Yerevan, the opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated: “There will come a moment when the international community will doubt the legitimacy of Serzh Sargsyan’s presidency, and a criminal case will be filed to the Court of Justice in the Hague.”

Taking ‘Kocharyan’s case’ to the Hague is a move that aims at keeping the former leader from making another bid for presidency in the 2013 race for the office, rather than prompting a probe into his actions.

In any case, ANC and its leader Ter-Petrosyan appear to be making serious preparations for the next presidential election, even though it is way too early to make predictions about what the [complete] list of candidates during it will be – and whether or not Kocharyan will be among the challengers.

Armen Rustamyan, a senior member of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun and the de facto head of the party’s governing body in Armenia, said in this concern and reflecting on the speculation about Kocharyan’s possible return to major-league politics that his party has no intention of assisting the ex-president’s return.

“Had [Dashnak candidate] Vahan Hovhannisyan won in the 2008 elections, we would have a completely different Armenia now,” said Rustamyan on Monday following a major party convention at the weekend.

According to him, only ARF is capable of and is interested in solving all the issues the country is facing now. “In order for that to happen we have to come to power. It is impossible to make solid achievements being only part of that power but not atop of the pyramid,” he said.