In light of international sanctions imposed on Iran as well as speculations about a possible preemptive strike on the Islamic Republic, it is in the national interests of Armenia not to allow a war in the region. It is this interest that might explain a boost in Iranian-Armenian relations.

While a number of Iranian-Armenian economic projects, such as ambitious plans for a railway construction project, construction of large processing enterprises and others, appear to be stalling, political cooperation is becoming more and more tangible.

Experts attribute the new wave of Iranian-Armenian warming primarily to the Karabakh subject.

Had the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan meeting with senior diplomats from Russia, the United States and France in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on July 17 accepted the so-called “Madrid Plan” of settlement for the long-running dispute, it could have led to a drastic reconfiguration in the South Caucasus and the emergence of foreign troops. Possibly, Iran would have become the force to stop the appearance of international peacekeepers in the Karabakh conflict zone. Iran borders territories controlled by the Karabakh Armenian military and it has repeatedly stated the inadmissibility of the deployment of forces from outside the region in the conflict zone.

Armenia’s Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan recently visited Iran and during his visit met with the country’s political leadership. During his meetings with Secretary of the National Security Supreme Council Saeed Jalili and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki it was particularly emphasized that regional conflicts must be resolved through inter-regional mechanisms.

“I understand that in light of sanctions against Iran, some will react skeptically to my approach, but I am sure that in regional solutions one should not and cannot ignore Iran,” stated Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in a June 23 speech during his visit to Germany.

The Armenian leader pointed out that it is essential for the region to dispel Iran’s current feeling of danger, stressing that “without it there will be no solutions to tomorrow’s problems, nor even a solution to today’s nuclear problem.”

Meanwhile, the world has lately seen mounting tensions between Iran and the United States. Experts say the launch of an awareness campaign in the United States to prepare the public for an operation against Iran shows that such a strike is not far off.

Will the West manage to solve problems with Iran diplomatically or will the Iraqi scenario be used? What consequences will a possible war in the region have in already changed international conditions? It is obvious that Turkey cannot support a NATO-led military operation against Iran, especially if the first strike, as expected, is delivered not by the United States, but its regional ally Israel. Besides, Turkey has already begun efforts on consolidating the Islamic world. How should Armenia, the only non-Muslim country bordering on Iran, behave in such a situation? It is obvious that the main task for Armenia should be security.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani have plans to visit Armenia. The dates of these visits have not yet been specified, but invitations have already been made. Recently, Ahmadinejad received the visiting defense minister of Armenia. It was issues of regional security that the sides reportedly discussed during their meeting. The Armenian side stated that it was interested in regional peace.