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On November 23 Russian president Dmitry Medvedev made a special statement in reference to the situation with NATO countries’ Missile Defense System in Europe.

Stressing that “regrettably, the USA and other NATO partners have not showed enough willingness” to cooperate with Russia in developing a joint sector-based rather than in-stages missile defense system, Medvedev presented his five decisions, among them “protective cover of Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons; putting the missile attack early warning radar station in Kaliningrad on combat alert” and others.

In the fifth point Medvedev stressed that “if the above measures prove insufficient, the Russian Federation will deploy modern offensive weapon systems in the west and south of the country, ensuring our ability to take out any part of the US missile defense system in Europe. One step in this process will be to deploy Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad Region”.

The phrase “cold war” was first introduced by Winston Churchill in his famous speech in March 1946, in the American town of Fulton, Missouri.

Churchill called for an overthrow of communist regimes in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and used a number of new formulations (such as “iron curtain”), that later became part of a universal political lexicon.

The Cold War is commonly considered to have finished with the fall of the “iron curtain” and collapse of communist regimes and the USSR. However, the Russian president’s speech seems to have become a fresh reminder.

Today’s environment does not rival the early 1960s “Cuban missile crisis” (when Moscow put missiles in Cuba, 90 miles from the U.S., after the U.S. put missiles in Turkey). The closest “cold war or words” is Medvedev’s decision to deploy modern offensive weapon systems in the west and south of Russia.

However, where Kaliningrad was named in reference with the west of Russia, nothing definite was said about
the southern borders.

On the south the main constituent of the Russian missile attack early warning system is Gabala radar station (RS). Its detection range is around 8,000 km in radius, capable of detecting missile launch from the shores of the Indian Ocean, and keep a watchful eye on Turkey, Iraq, Iran, India and all the Eastern European countries.

The catch is that Gabala RS is in Azerbaijan, and Russia has been renting it for $7 million per year for the past decade. The contract, however, is expiring next year, but envisages a possible extension.

Azeri-Russian negotiations on the extension of the rental contract were held the day before Medvedev’s speech; Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Araz Azimov had said that “Russia’s annual rent of $7 million for the Gabala station is inadequate”. Hence, Russia might have to pay double.

The day after Medvedev’s speech, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Secretary General Nikolay Bordyuzha made a statement saying that: “Gabala RS is utilized for the good of Russia, and if there is a need to further use that segment in the Russian missile defense system, Russia will go for extension of the contract”

Theoretically, there is also a possibility that Russia might consider deploying a new radar system on the territory of Armenia, where Russian military base No102 is deployed until 2044.