Economists this week have reacted vigorously to the latest portion of statistics provided by the country’s National Statistical Service (NSS), which posted macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic situation in Armenia in the first six months of this year.

While those in the government camp, including politicians and pro-government analysts, view the posted data as more proof that the country is securely on the road to recovery after a year of economic slump caused by the global recession, those on the other side of the political fence claim that the figures are “very well drawn”.

According to the NSS, Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 6.7 percent during the first half of this year as compared to the same period in 2009. The report, however, shows that the growth has slowed down as compared to the period of January-May when an 8.8-percent increase was reported. The month-on-month contraction is mainly caused by a more than 13-percent decline in agriculture. Growth is posted for all other sectors of the economy.

Speaking about the month-on-month downturn in the economy, former Central Bank chief Bagrat Asatryan voices doubts that the agricultural sector in which certain growth had been observed since the beginning of the year could have momentarily and abruptly fell in June.

“The data are not correct, such a growth could not have happened,” Asatryan said at a press conference on Thursday.

At the same time, the economist has criticized lack of reforms in the agricultural sphere in the past two decades which, he argued, has led to the emergence of a million potential emigrants in rural areas of Armenia waiting for an opportune moment to leave the country.

Armenia’s former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan has challenged the veracity of the official statistics. He also doubts that the agricultural sector, which along with the mining industry and construction contributed to an 8.8-percent growth in the first five months of the year could have abruptly declined by 13 percent in the sixth month.

But like the ex-CB head, Bagratyan also thinks that the government should carry out major reforms in agriculture.

Head of the National Assembly’s Committee for Financial-Credit and Budgetary Affairs Gagik Minasyan, meanwhile, believes that the NSS-posted macro-economic indicators show that the “government’s anti-crisis plan is bearing fruits.”

Yet, Asatryan conditions that growth by three main factors: the loans received in 2009 start giving results now, the rising international prices for exported copper and molybdenum – the results of which, according to Asatryan, Armenia’s population does not feel, “because the mining industry is in the hands of a few individuals.” And thirdly, according to him, the increase in the amounts of private remittances – money wired by Armenians staying or working abroad to their family members back in Armenia.

Asatryan says he does not notice any serious qualitative and structural changes in the country’s economy to secure a sustainable growth.

“A few people – that’s the whole economy of Armenia. This country is not for me or for you. This country is for a maximum of 2,000 people. During his whole life a citizen of Armenia is subject to authoritarian, economic and social pressure, in all areas. Even if the growth is five times as high, you will not feel that, because it is not for you,” Asatryan claimed.

Critics believe that the government will close the economic year with unrealistically “drawn” positive indicators.

“The crisis continues. This is what is called the second wave that comes to Armenia, but the government is trying to show growth,” says ex-PM Bagratyan.

And Asatryan argues that while the government will try to present everything in a favorable light, “it is important to understand that growth of some five percent is not a growth for Armenia, but rather stagnation.”