Economist Grigor Hayrapetyan believes that the second wave of the global financial crisis may have a much worse effect on the economy of Armenia than the first one several years ago when the country’s robust GDP growth abruptly ended and a steep decline was registered.

Economists say the second wave of recession will be deeper for the entire world as at present the world economy is much weaker than during the latest downturn in 2008.

Armenian economists are worried whether Armenia is prepared to withstand the current second wave of world economic crisis.

Armenia’s Finance Ministry this week has reported about an unprecedented 8.8 percent growth of the economy during the first five months of this year. Local television channels keep telling about an improving situation in the country, saying that the crisis is over and all this thanks to the government policies.

Independent economists, however, say that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is not the result of the government’s economic policy, but is related to the improvement of affairs on the world mining industry market.

The need for a more diversified economy is a major lesson that Armenia must draw from the period of crisis that it went through last year, according to Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan.

“It was because of the low level of economic diversification that we saw a steeper economic decline than other countries, which possess a higher level of diversification,” said Sargsyan on Tuesday, reporting on the 2009 state budget fulfillment to Armenian lawmakers.

The appreciation of Armenia’s national currency, the dram, observed in the past two weeks (seeing the dollar exchange rate dropping from 400 per dram down to 375-378) is likely to continue as the economy has seen a 64 percent rise in exports in January-April this year and tendencies for a growing amount of remittances from abroad. But the former Central Bank chairman Bagrat Asatryan still thinks the biggest factor of this continued appreciation is “the desire of some persons.”

Armenia is considering a more optimistic growth scenario this year after showing a faster-than-expected recovery from last year’s steep economic decline so far this year.

Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said on Thursday that the anti-crisis measures taken by his government have yielded positive results helping the country overcome its worst recession in years.

While Armenia importers and even tourists might be in a celebratory mood as the European Union’s single currency, the Euro, is plunging amid the continuing budget deficit crisis in Greece, experts say the difficulties experienced in Europe do not bode well for the Armenian economy in the longer term.

The price of water for households and corporate consumers in capital Yerevan and nearby areas may be increased by more than 14 percent in July after a utility company has requested such a tariff change from the public services regulatory body.

According to a study by a leading Armenian research center, Armenia showed the greatest economic decline in 2009 among twelve former USSR countries, in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

The year of 2009 was a year full of ordeals for Armenia’s economy, bringing the boisterous growth of the past 10 years to a jarring end.