Road to Recovery: Armenia upbeat on growth prospects, IMF shares optimism

Road to Recovery: Armenia upbeat on growth prospects, IMF shares optimism


Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan (left). President Serzh Sargsyan meeting Head of the IMF mission to Armenia Mark Lewis

Armenia is considering a more optimistic growth scenario this year after showing a faster-than-expected recovery from last year’s steep economic decline so far this year.


Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said on Thursday that the anti-crisis measures taken by his government have yielded positive results helping the country overcome its worst recession in years.

Armenia’s economy had been expanding at a double-digit rate since 2001, but the growth ended last year and gave way to a 14.4 percent decline amid the deepening fallout from the global economic recession. At the end of last year the government forecast a modest 1.2 percent economic growth for 2010. The 7.2 percent year-on-year growth posted for January-April this year has provided grounds for expecting a higher full-year growth.

“We need to continue our work consistently and focus more on measures that will help us maintain this high rate of growth in 2011-2012,” Sargsyan told his Cabinet, promising transparency in government decision-making and spending.

The optimism of the Armenian authorities has been echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one of the major international lending institutions and donors of Armenia.

The pace of recovery shown by Armenia so far this year has led the IMF to revise its full-year forecast for the country’s economic growth upwards.

A visiting official said this week Armenia’s economy may expand by as much as 4 percent in 2010.
“Although the economic conditions are not very good yet, the Armenian economy is recovering step by step. The financial sector is strong, state finances are well-managed, and the volume of foreign transfers is increasing,” said Head of the IMF mission to Armenia Mark Lewis at his meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on Wednesday.

“Nevertheless, while the crisis has passed, important medium-term challenges have emerged: boosting growth while reducing poverty, reversing the debt build-up, and maintaining financial stability,” added Lewis in a statement released on the results of his May 6-19 visit to Yerevan.

President Sargsyan, as reported by his press service, also hoped for “a pretty active year of economic recovery”, but stressed: “At the same time, this year we should be able to continue the implementation of the reforms.”

The IMF mission announced this week reaching agreement with Armenian authorities on a new program subject to approval next month by IMF management and the Executive Board. Under the program Armenia would have access to a total of $392 million through June 2013. Board approval of the program in late June would enable Armenia to draw about $52 million.