The appreciation of Armenia’s national currency, the dram, observed in the past two weeks (seeing the dollar exchange rate dropping from 400 per dram down to 375-378) is likely to continue as the economy has seen a 64 percent rise in exports in January-April this year and tendencies for a growing amount of remittances from abroad. But the former Central Bank chairman Bagrat Asatryan still thinks the biggest factor of this continued appreciation is “the desire of some persons.”

“The changes of currency exchange rates or prices in our country are unpredictable, since economic rules or factors do not work here,” says Asatryan, who headed Armenia’s financial market regulator from 1994 to 1998.

According to him, everything is decided “in closed rooms and by individuals” and “even high-level officials developing economic policies do not have influence on these decisions.”

“I’ve said it in the past that even if I were an official, perhaps I wouldn’t be able to change anything, since it is not the Central Bank management or ministers who are decision-makers,” Asatryan told ArmeniaNow after holding a press conference Friday.

The former official believes it is because of the oligarchic system that “when commodity prices fall on the international market, the same prices keep rising in Armenia.”

“In the past year the price of petrol in Armenia has risen by about 34 percent, whereas this price on the international market has remained all but unchanged. Foodstuff prices on the international market have decreased by 5-10 percent, while in Armenia they have increased by about 20 percent,” said Asatryan.

Against the backdrop of last year’s Gross Domestic Product fall of more than 14 percent, the 7.2 percent economic growth recorded in the first four months this year reassures members of the government on a recovery from crisis, but Asatryan says that while being an occasion for joy, this growth is at the same time “fragile and unreliable”.

“This is mainly due to the current situation on the international metals market, in particularly an unprecedented surge in copper prices – to $7,000 per ton (compared to $3,000 in 2009). But an economic growth cannot be reliable only due to metal exports,” concluded Asatryan.