Exceptional Armenia: Economic boom unexplainably common for election years, expert says

The political tension ahead of next month’s presidential election in Armenia is very unlikely to put the country’s economic growth prospects at risk, an expert known for his criticism of the government’s economic policies said on Wednesday.

Economist Eduard Aghajanov, former chief of ROA Statistical Service, explains his view by his observations of past performances rather than by logic and economic theories.

In fact, he says that Armenia may be the only country in the world that does not see recessions, but on the contrary posts record-high economic growth figures during election years.

Basing his expectations on the experience of previous years, Aghajanov reminds that in 2003 when Armenians elected their president and parliament the country posted an unprecedented annual growth figure of 13.9 percent, matching it also in 2005 when a referendum on constitutional changes was held.

The latest example of what the economist views as an “illogical development” was the 13.8 percent GDP growth achieved in 2007 when elections to the National Assembly were held in Armenia.

“Investments in other countries fall during election years, money is taken out, risks are not taken to expand businesses. And Armenia is a unique country in this sense. The only one that posts the highest rates of economic growths in conditions of political tension,” Aghajanov told ArmeniaNow.

Also, according to Aghajanov, the diminishing world mortgage crisis has had zero affect on Armenia.

The mortgage repayment crisis that started in the United States soon snowballed into Europe and further into Japan as securities on risky mortgage loans had been sold worldwide.

Most losses were sustained by the City Bank ($35 billion), which, still, intends to pay $3 billion to its shareholders as shares of profit.

The crisis also affected Russia, where the external debt of firms is $400 billion, as it became more difficult to borrow loans from foreign banks.

Aghajanov says the crisis did not affect Armenia because no securities were purchased here and the amount of loans received from abroad is insignificant.