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Do votes equal change?

The nationwide survey, entitled Armenia National Voter Study, was commissioned by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and conducted in August by the International Republican Institute, the Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological Association.

It found that 62 percent of Armenians think their country is on the wrong track, while 31 percent hold to the opposite opinion. And, significantly, while twice as many think the country needs change as those who are satisfied, only 15 percent seem to indicate confidence that change can take place through fair elections.

Only 29 percent of some 1,200 eligible voters randomly interviewed across Armenia are satisfied with the country’s democratic development, against 68 percent.

Of those questioned, 37 percent believe that creating jobs should be high on the government agenda if it wants to attract public support. The other issues of great concern among the Armenian population are increasing democracy (21 percent), increasing salaries and pensions (18 percent), holding fair elections (15 percent), developing economy (14 percent), and fighting corruption (8 percent).

71 percent of respondents said they will either definitely (44 percent) or likely (27 percent) vote in next May’s parliamentary elections. 14 percent will definitely not go to the polls, while 15 percent are yet undecided or not ready to answer.

While 61 percent of those questioned said they will go to the polls because it is “their duty”, only 9 percent will do so because they support a certain party or candidate, and only 5 percent because they care about a particular issue.

A majority of those who do not plan to vote say it is because “I do not believe that elections will be fair” (35 percent) and “my vote doesn’t change anything” (30 percent).

According to the study, for most voters it matters that a parliamentary candidate be honest and objective (31 percent), have a democrat’s outlook (30 percent), have a good educational background (28 percent), be willing to take care of people and work hard (19 and 14 percent, respectively). Only 6 percent care about his/her professionalism. Fulfilling promises, patriotism, morality, modesty and strong will are also mentioned as attributes for a desired candidate.

The poll shows that Armenians don’t expect revolution – neither “rose” (like Georgia) nor “orange” (like Ukraine). A mere 2 percent of the respondents are positive that what was later called a “colored” -- or nonviolent – revolution will happen in Armenia, particularly one that forces political change. 14 percent say it may happen, 41 percent say “probably it won’t”, and 32 percent believe it will definitely not happen.

Interestingly, among the “Heroes for Our Times” (of the prominent people in Armenian history and folk culture who is the most suitable to be a leader in the present) as mentioned by respondents, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan is in the honorable second place with 9 percent after General Andranik (12 percent) and ahead of national hero Garegin Nzhdeh (8 percent). He is one of the three living “heroes” mentioned by the public along with tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan and French-Armenian singer Charles Aznavour. Among other dead heroes Armenians mention ex-communist boss Karen Demirchyan, King Tigran the Great, 5th century military leader Vardan Mamikonyan, Karabakh war hero Monte Melkonyan, creator of the Armenian alphabet Mesrop Mashtots, military commander Dro, and Soviet army marshal Hovhannes Baghramyan.

The polltakers say the margin of error of the survey does not exceed 3 percent.

At the same time, a Gallup report on focus group discussions conducted in Armenia simultaneously with the study sampled the attitudes and values of the Armenian population. A poll on political parties in Armenia revealed that among parties with a prevailing positive image are: Vazgen Manukyan’s opposition National Democratic Union, opposition Heritage party led by Raffi Hovannisian, Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), which is part of the ruling coalition, and wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukyan-led Prosperous Armenia that enjoys President Robert Kocharyan’s backing.

Among parties with a prevailing neutral or split image are: pro-government United Labor Party, opposition National Unity, Ramkavar Azatakan party (outside parliament), and opposition Constitutional Right Union (this party suffered a major split within its ranks following last Saturday’s congress, as its two top leaders Hrant Khachatryan [current chairman] and Hayk Babukhanyan [his deputy] have fallen out over internal party issues and are both contesting party leadership. Khachatryan warns he will quit politics unless his deputy resigns).

The current and former ruling parties of Armenia –- the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and the Armenian All-National Movement -- came out on the losing end in the discussion groups. Parties with a prevailing negative image also include: the opposition People’s party led by Stepan Demirchyan and Hanrapetutyun (Republic) party led by ex-premier Aram Sargsyan, Orinats Yerkir (which recently quit the ruling coalition to join the opposition ranks), the Communist Party of Armenia, the opposition New Times party led by Aram Karapetyan.

According to the report, Heritage party and ex-foreign minister of Armenia Raffi Hovannisian, whose party leads the opposition movement outside parliament, is clearly the most trusted political leader in all groups, as the report concludes that “he is perceived as the most honest, patriotic, and promising figure.”

In the majority of groups, opposition leader Vazgen Manukyan and Dashnaktsutyun leaders were mentioned as trustworthy and patriotic politicians.

Among politicians with a negative image, Republican Party leader and incumbent Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan received the most negative comments, but some positive opinions as well, which leads the pollsters to conclude that his evaluation is “mixed”.