Thomas de Waal, a British journalist, author and expert on the Caucasus, best known to Armenians as the author of a book on Karabakh, calls the conflict over the disputed land ‘dormant’ rather than ‘frozen’ because the prospect of renewed hostilities remains real.

“There is a frozen conflict in Cyprus where the sides do not come to agreement, however do not revert to military operations. Meanwhile, there is, unfortunately, a threat of war in the long run in Karabakh,” said de Waal, the author of the book “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War”, as he spoke as a guest at a conference on the Karabakh conflict held by the Civilitas Foundation in Yerevan on Tuesday afternoon.

According to the British expert, Armenia relies on Azerbaijan’s “prudence” not to start a war. But Azerbaijan, he said, cannot stand the current status-quo for long and sooner or later will attempt to win back [at least] the territories that were not Armenian-populated [before the conflict].

De Waal had been invited to Armenia by former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who currently heads Civilitas, a leading local think tank, to be a guest speaker at the conference. The 43-year-old scholar for years has studied different conflicts around the world. He published his book on Karabakh “Black Garden:…” in 2003. (The book is available in English, Russian and Armenian.)

De Waal says the book was the “first step” in the field where there are still few print sources that present the viewpoints of both sides in a balanced way. He says that perhaps it is because of this that he is a target of criticism both in Azerbaijan and in Armenia.

During the discussion that lasted for about two hours de Waal also spoke about possibilities of finding a solution to the protracted conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over Karabakh, saying that Baku recently started to speak of the currently proposed framework for a peace deal in more positive terms than years ago. While in the past Azerbaijan would reject any document, then today it, in a certain way, has a positive response to the revised Madrid Principles proposed by the international mediators.

De Waal thinks, however, that the negotiating process reaches an impasse every time it confronts the Karabakh status issue and based on this he makes a supposition that if Azerbaijan responded positively, then it is this point that is weakened in the Minsk Group’s updated document.

The expert does not think Baku has changed its position in the issue of Karabakh’s status, but admits that the document might be vaguer on it now than in the past, which, he says, is what Baku likes about it.

At the same time, de Waal says that the plan around which negotiations are being conducted is attractive because it raises the issue of an interim status regarding Karabakh, which may eventually get a status that might be not full independence but still a status with which it can have access to the world. Analyzing the Karabakh conflict, the British expert compares a durable peace with a chair that can be stable only when it has four legs.

“The peace process at this moment has only two legs,” he said, explaining that it is negotiations around the basic principles of settlement and maintaining the ceasefire regime along the line of contact. “The second leg is very fragile and is maintained solely due to the goodwill of the sides.”

The third “leg”, according to the expert, is post-conflict planning as it happened in the Balkans – de-mining activities, reconstruction, economic programs, peacekeeping.

And the fourth “leg”, as defined by de Waal, is contacts on the level of societies. In this sense, de Waal today sees certain changes in Azerbaijan from where he returned recently.

“In Azerbaijan they started to treat contacts of peoples more seriously. I know that the society in Armenia is more open, such a discussion in Azerbaijan would have passed in an extremely heated atmosphere, but it is understandable, since they are the defeated side and feel offended,” de Waal told ArmeniaNow.