The most significant change for Nagorno-Karabakh brought on by the five-day war in Georgia is that the risk of hostilities has reduced, said Sergey Minasyan, head of the Political Research Department of the Caucasus Institute, at a discussion about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Thursday.

“The precedent that a former center (Tbilisi) failed to repeat what happened in Srpska Kraina (when Croats conquered a Serbian autonomy at the point of bayonet), i.e. failed to destroy a de-facto state (South Ossetia) after long and meticulous preparations and armament was a strong message for Baku,” Minasyan explains.

The expert says that the active movements over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue observed of late are the result of a fundamentally changed security system in the region in the fallout of the brief August war between Russia and Georgia.

Minasyan says that Russia’s role in the South Caucasus has changed. According to him, Russia’s losing influence over Georgia and total absence of Russo-Georgian relations have turned the South Caucasus into a territory for Russia where there still remain two states and the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh is a serious leverage for influencing them. It is in this context that the offer of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to host a meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan and play a decisive role in the conflict settlement can be explained, he adds.

Another explanation provided by the analyst is that after the war with Georgia and ensuing chill in relations with the West, Russia is trying to cut a figure of a tolerant, predictable and positive partner that not only wins wars with small countries but also settles conflicts in the post-Soviet space.

Another analyst, however, says that Medvedev’s initiative contains risks for Nagorno-Karabakh as this step makes the unrecognized republic a victim of Russian interests.

Stepan Grigoryan, head of the Center for the Research of Globalization and Regional Cooperation Issues, says Russia wants to trade Nagorno-Karabakh for Azerbaijani exports of oil and gas via its territory.

“If Russia wants oil and gas exports to pass through its territory, then I propose as follows: Russia is a vast country, and therefore it is not a problem for it to cede a small territory of 5,000 square kilometers to Azerbaijan. I don’t think it is correct [for Russia] to solve its problems at the expense of Nagorno-Karabakh.”

And Minasyan says that no matter what the course of events is, Azerbaijan will never be perceived as pro-West as Georgia and on the other hand, no matter what combination of Armenian-Russian relations is, Moscow will regard Yerevan as more of a partner and ally than Azerbaijan.