Approaching the January session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in Strasbourg that will again review Armenia’s compliance with its April and June resolutions on the post-election clashes in Yerevan, the Armenian capital’s Northern Avenue has again become site of political “walks”. Each cold afternoon small groups gather on Yerevan’s centerpiece boulevard to express their dissatisfaction with the current political situation in the country.

After the bloody suppression on March 1 of the opposition’s ten-day post-election demonstrations in which at least eight civilians and two police died, and hundreds of opposition supporters were injured and over a hundred were arrested, the PACE adopted Resolution 1609 on April 17 urging Armenia “to return to the democratic path.”

In the resolution the Strasbourg-based body spelled out four major demands for Armenia to overcome its worst-ever political crisis stemming from the February presidential vote. Those included the restoration of freedom of public assembly as well as launching an open and serious dialogue between all political forces.

In a resolution the PACE demanded an “independent, transparent and credible inquiry” into the March 1 events as well as called for “the urgent release of the persons detained on seemingly artificial and politically motivated charges who personally did not commit any act of violence.”

While at its June session the PACE found Armenia’s progress on the resolution “unsatisfactory”, in the subsequent resolution setting forth nearly identical demands it stopped short of imposing sanctions on Armenia, such as stripping its four-member delegation of their voting rights at the Assembly.

At the end of his three-day fact-finding mission in Yerevan in late November, Thomas Hammarberg, the Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner, hailed the recent establishing of a fact-finding group of experts to assist the main parliamentary probe into the March 1 violence. But the commissioner criticized what he described as general “lack of development” and said that depriving Armenia of its voting right at the PACE was a serious prospect unless the country’s government addresses the situation before January.

“The information that I have rather disappoints me,” Hammarberg said, adding that in this case the fact that other things happened, such as the Georgia war, the Karabakh discussion, Armenia-Turkey relations, could not change his opinion on the March 1 investigation and further developments. “The matter concerns basic human rights and the violation of these rights is intolerable.”

At a press conference on November 22, Hammarberg expressed concern over ongoing trials, verdicts as well as keeping people in custody for months “without sufficient grounds” and the investigation into deaths. He said that teargas canister fragments found in the bodies of three killed civilians had been released by police and “the narrow circle of police that dealt with those means [on that night] is known.”

“I also thought it was possible to establish who held those weapons that caused the deaths,” said Hammarberg. “I have discussed this matter at the prosecutor’s office already twice. Their answer is that they continue their scrupulous work at this matter, however they have so far failed to clarify this issue.”

While the police and political authorities are giving assurances they are doing their utmost to identify those responsible and bring them to justice, the opposition again decries the violations of “basic human rights”, the presence of political prisoners as well as putting the whole blame on the opposition.

“The authorities filled the March 1 case with their wishes. There is a plain political goal – to accuse people of what happened on March 1, there is one question for one person to answer,” says Arman Musinyan, the spokesman for opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan. “Their logic is that unless the opposition gathered on March 1, there would not have been victims, if you did gather, then it is your fault.”

Prominent opposition figure, currently editor-in-chief of the Zhamanak-Yerevan daily Suren Surenyants tells ArmeniaNow that the authorities “have done nothing substantial to comply with the PACE resolutions.”

“The presence of political prisoners in the country alone evidences that the demands of the two PACE resolutions have not been met,” says Surenyants, who himself was detained on February 25 and later charged with plotting a coup, organizing mass disturbances and other deeds. The oppositionist was later released on April 17, after staging a 13-day hunger strike, and charges against him were subsequently dropped.

“It is obvious that the demands will not have been met until the session,” he adds.

Unlike Surenyants, senior lawmaker from the governing Republican Party of Armenia Edward Sharmazanov tells ArmeniaNow that steps have been made and that it is citizens who should judge them.

Sharmazanov gives assurances that compliance with the resolutions or appeasing European partners are not the paramount objective of the government actions. Rather, it is the authorities’ paramount goal to form an atmosphere of confidence in Armenia and guide Armenia along the democratic path.

“It is very difficult to carry out reforms after such clashes,” the Republican lawmaker says. “People are working in an open and transparent manner, besides a fact-finding group has been set up. It is the opposition that obstructs by not participating in the March 1 investigation, which causes mistrust to the process with people. True, there are lots of steps to be made, however, much has been done and international partners also notice this.”

Sharmazanov says that Hammarberg’s criticism was not a stone thrown at the authorities, but rather was a piece of advice on how to lead the country along the correct path.

Another senior Republican lawmaker Rafik Petrosyan is hopeful that changes will be made by the January session of the PACE.

“I think many things will be changed before the issue of Armenia is put for a discussion at the PACE January session. The president has already started the process of granting pardons, it only remains that the well-known ‘Case of Seven’ is heard,” Petrosyan tells ArmeniaNow (referring to seven opposition leaders, including ex-foreign minister and Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s election campaign manager Alexander Arzumanyan who are due to go on trial on coup charges on December 19). “It is possible a general amnesty will be declared, which is a point much talked about now, and in that case the amnesty will also apply to the March 1 cases.”

Sharmazanov also draws attention to the recent decrees of President Serzh Sargsyan whereby he granted pardons to three convicts in March 1-related cases.

“Those steps also show that the president forgives and does not go down the road of repressions,” says Sharmazanov. “These steps give grounds to suppose that seeing the steps of the government, the PACE is unlikely to deprive Armenia of its voting rights at this organization.”

Oppositionist Surenyants also expects that Armenia is not running the risk of ‘losing voice’ at the PACE in January, but he is far from putting this down to “positive steps” of the government.

Surenyants thinks that the PACE instead will pass a tougher and more obliging resolution on Armenia, but will leave the issue of freezing the country’s membership on the agenda.

“The PACE is being guided not only with issues of democracy and human rights, but also with concrete interests,” Surenyants asserts. “At present, when the Karabakh peace process is ongoing, it is most unlikely that the Council of Europe will leave Armenia outside this structure, thus violating the principle of political parity. If Azerbaijan, which has a closely similar authoritarian system, is not left out, no such tough decision will be passed on Armenia either.”