On Monday, March 29, Ruben Melkonyan, expert in Turkish studies, expressed a viewpoint that Turkey is not likely to ratify the protocols on normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations before April 24, Armenian Genocide Commemoration day. The rapprochement process is de facto frozen, he says, but things might change after the April 24 non-official deadline.

According to Melkonyan, even though the process is not going anywhere at the moment, it has a tendency to move on. He brings the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations to support his point.

“Turkish state policy of establishing relations with different countries does not always work fast. For example, diplomatic relations with Syria were established after long and stormy discussions; Turkey ratified those protocols three years after their signing,” Melkonyan says.

Political analyst Yervand Bozoyan has a more pessimistic opinion on the possible progress in the Armenian-Turkish relations, saying that despite the active developments in a number of European countries in terms of Armenian Genocide resolutions (which are an additional effort at putting pressure upon Turkey), Turkey openly shows its lack of intent to ratify the protocols.

“Turkey, in its turn, points out the only fact that may get the things off the ground – progress in Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Obviously, the Armenian side cannot go for radical solutions in that issue, because it might threaten the security of Nagorno-Karabakh, and as a result, the process has stopped,” Bozoyan says.

He even thinks that Turkey’s use of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is dangerous, and may lead to a war.

“There are numerous suchlike issues in the world usually settled at the expense of one of the sides or by means of hostilities. We are currently facing a serious threat related to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,” says the political analyst.

Melkonyan in his turn insists that there is no war threat because “big players are involved in the process.”

“The United States and Russia are interested in peaceful settlement of the issue. We are not planning to make concessions now, because we have our own calculations,” Melkonyan says.