Former foreign minister Vartan Oskanian’s joining Armenia’s second most important governing party may be an indication that a centrist opposition is emerging in the country.

The Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) recently issued a statement jointly with its two coalition partners – the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and Orinats Yerkir – that the coalition will not be contesting the May parliamentary elections with a single list. The three political parties only announced their agreement around “civilized competition”.

Analysts are divided in their assessments of this latest coalition agreement: some say that the governing parties simply decided to divide their functions and get as many protest votes as they could. Others argue that current President Serzh Sargsyan and former President Robert Kocharyan, who is believed to patronize the PAP, were unable to agree, and Kocharyan intends to return to active politics in a stance of an opponent.

However, one can hardly expect the PAP’s assuming a radical opposition stance, rather it is likely to occupy the vacant niche of a centrist opposition party, without forming an alliance with the radical opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC). First, there is the factor of irreconcilable hostility between Kocharyan and his predecessor Levon Ter-Petrosyan (who now leads the ANC). Secondly, the PAP will avoid direct confrontation with the current president, preferring to “prove” that the situation in the country during Kocharyan’s presidency was better.

The fact that the PAP does not intend to become an active opposition was also testified during last Sunday’s competitive election in the town of Hrazdan where RPA and ANC representatives were battling it out for the mayoral post. The PAP displayed a neutral position, refusing to support the opposition candidate who was supported by the parliamentary opposition parties, Dashnaktsutyun and Heritage.

PAP lawmaker Naira Zohrabyan only said the party would “hail if all candidates participating in the mayoral election in Hrazdan aspired to hold free and fair elections and respected the voter’s will.”

Some also expect the PAP to form an electoral bloc with Dashnaktsutyun, which is also loyal to the second president. Chances of both parties in such a bloc will grow, especially after Oskanian joins the PAP to provide it with more substantial ideology. The thing is that the PAP has routinely been accused of lacking ideology and a program and that its leader, tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan, earns political dividends exclusively through charity. But with the financial resource underlying Oskanian’s moderately critical ideology, the PAP may just as well emerge as a reliable centrist force.