Demographers foresee a decline in the birthrate in Armenia during the upcoming years, because the generation born in the troubled 1990s is reaching the reproductive age.

The early years of independent Armenia were marked by a mass emigration of the population and worsening of social conditions that impacted the country’s demographic situation. (For example in 1999, 32,000 children were born in Armenia, which was twice as few as the number of children born in the 1980s.)

In spite of this gloomy predictions, a growth of the birthrate is noticed in Armenia today: for example, 44,466 children were born in 2009, which is 8 percent higher than the index for 2008.

Demographer Ruben Yeganyan explains it by the fact that people born in the 1980s have reached their reproductive age; for example (in 1970-1980 before the crisis of the 90s 75,000-80,000 births were registered annually).

According to the demographer, in order to avoid the declining birthrate, it is necessary to give birth to at least three children in each family, as it was in the 1970s-1980s, and it was considered to be “a basis for demographic prosperity.”

“However, now our maternal generation reproduces itself by half,” Yeganyan said, adding that currently the average reproductive index (for those who are in their reproductive age) in Armenia is 1.4 percent (1-2 children).