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Stepan Safaryan

The Collective Security Treaty (CST) was signed on May 15, 1992 within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) by Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In 1993 Azebaijan, Belarus and Georgia joined the Treaty which was renewable after five years. In 1999, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan did not renew their agreement.

According to Stepan Safaryan, director of research at the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, Armenia’s participation in upcoming CSTO exercises could be read as collusion with Russia, a staunch opponent of US policy toward Iran.

“A coalition of peace-keeping forces will be assembled in Russia in June,” Safaryan told ArmeniaNow. “And if the threat of war in Iran was realized, I’m sure they would be mobilized.” Armenia’s participation in any affiliated campaign could, by default, signal that it shares the body politic of countries that generally oppose American aggression in the Middle East.

Armenia’s arch-rival Azerbaijan, is not a CSTO member, and if tested, this fact, says Safaryan could place the enemy countries on “geo-political, rather than just ethnic, opposite ends”.

“This would have dangerous political consequences for Armenia,” Safaryan says, adding that “the United States does not want to see separation in the region.”

In recent debates that led to the resignation of Speaker of Parliament Artur Baghdassaryan, President Robert Kocharyan spoke in favor of Armenia’s involvement with CSTO.

In general, Safaryan (www.acnis.am) shares the sentiment of other political scientists, that conflict in Iran will likely be avoided through diplomatic means. If, though, those measures include United Nations sanctions, the impact could be felt here.

Already experiencing blockade to the east (Azerbaijan) and the west (Turkey), a UN trade embargo imposed on Iran would leave only Georgia as Armenia’s gateway out of the Caucasus.

Safaryan speculates that Iran will comply with US/UN mandates, through internal reform that will eventually lead to regime change.

Experts in his field of study, Safaryan says, “are drawing parallels between the current situation in Iran, and the final days of the Soviet Union.

“Separation is being observed between moderates and liberals. This is the classic ‘Gorbachev Model’.”

Though war is unlikely, the analyst says, if it should occur, it “would be catastrophic for the Caucasus” because anti-American factions would want to see the conflict spread to other countries leading, he warns, to something that could rightly be called “World War III”.