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According to the Embassy of Iran in Armenia, one transport truck from Iran crosses into Armenia every 16 minutes. The bridge itself was built in 1994-1995 and had a great significance for maintaining Armenia in the harshest years of blockade and energy shortage. Then, the passageway became known the “Road of Life”. It should also be mentioned that some territories controlled by the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s Defense Army also immediately border on Iran and make a 120-kilometer border section in the valley of the same trans-border river.

Just as the southern neighbor has offered the “road of life”, the United States – mostly through some $90 million or more per year in aid – has been a life line while Armenia struggles to independence.

Now, Iran-US conflict places official Yerevan in a delicate diplomatic position.

By force of the current difficult political situation in the region, Iran objectively is Armenia’s sole neighbor with which Yerevan maintains friendly relations. Despite the fact that the leadership of this Islamic state has consistently favored Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, political analysts say Iran’s position is driven by influence of its large Azeri population – estimated to be at least 10 million.

Nevertheless, during the years of the Karabakh war of 1991-1994, official Tehran did not support Azerbaijan. And, by force of its special significance in the Islamic world, Iran stymied attempts of separate structures in the League of Islamic States to attach a religious coloring to the Armenian-Azeri conflict and declare a jihad (holy war).

Besides the importance of the strategic bilateral relations maintained to date, Armenia is not interested in any aggression against Iran also in the long-term prospect, as it sees its future on the Russia-Armenia-Iran axis. It is noteworthy in this connection that Armenia’s position on this issue is definitely a political synthesis of its own national interests with Russian interests, which fully coincide in this case.

Armenia’s Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian says that “Iran’s balanced position is a guarantor of peace in the Caucasus” and adds that official Yerevan “hopes that differences can be resolved in a diplomatic way.”

However, nothing is yet said as to what the position of the Armenian leadership will be in the event of the start of military operations against Iran. Armenia’s position, though, may be reflected in comments by its Deputy Foreign Minister, Gegham Garibjanyan who, on May 17 said “Armenian-Iranian relations serve the real example of regional cooperation.”

On May 15, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan received Iran’s Ambassador to Armenia Alireza Hadigiyan. During the meeting the sides discussed the terms of the visit to Yerevan of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani. They also talked about the Karabakh peace process.

An informed source at Armenia’s Foreign Ministry told ArmeniaNow that “the war today seems highly unlikely, but even in the event of its start, Yerevan will not be involved in that war. Armenia will not provide its territory for attacks on Iran and will not send a contingent if such a proposal is made.” Nevertheless, the source said any discussions are premature.

“A close start of military operations against Iran has been a subject of discussion for the last several years, and by last summer war appeared to many as something inevitable,” military expert David Harutyunov says. “However, it doesn’t happen. Today, the strength of Iran’s regular armed forces is more than half a million, and considering its mobilization resource it is more than 17 million people. There are also special land troops – “the Guards of the Islamic Revolution”, with their number reaching 120,000 people. The total strength of the U.S. troops personnel “oriented to Iran” is estimated at 350,000 people. It is obvious that Washington is not going to engage in land operations in Iran, at best it is inclined to air strikes like it was in former Yugoslavia. One should say that on the published prospective maps of the ‘Iranian campaign’ the well-known Azerbaijani points of Nasosnaya and Kyurdamir are also designated for U.S. air strikes on bases in Iran.”

“Military operations against Iran would definitely destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus region,” Head of the Department of Problems of International Relations of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis of Russia Sergey Markedonov says. “In the event of a military operation against Iran, Georgia will support this campaign, as it has assumed a pro-American position. The position of Azerbaijan and Armenia in this matter is very difficult. Theoretically it is possible that under a certain coincidence of circumstances, one of the outcomes of the war may be that Azerbaijan will get part of Iran (Eastern Atropatena), and Armenia will get Karabakh.”

The outcome of the current negotiations between Baku and Washington is very important from this aspect. The results may outline new factors immediately influencing Armenia and the process of resolving the Karabakh conflict.