Analysis: ‘Unprecedented’ events in and around Turkey likely to increase regional turbulence

Some unprecedented events are taking place in Turkey that potentially can have significant consequences for the entire region in general and neighboring Armenia, in particular.


The global analytical community has long called Turkey one of the main actors of the international operation in Syria. Moreover, in the light of this conflict, leading experts say that a struggle has begun in Turkey between the Alawites and the Islamists – parallel to the movement of the Kurds who recently suspended the process of withdrawal of militants abroad.

In addition, the Kurds held a strike yesterday in the province of Van, demanding to be allowed to teach their children at schools in Kurdish. All Kurdish children yesterday boycotted school classes.

The Armenian issue has become topical as well. Diyarbakir (Tigranakert) recently saw the inauguration of a monument to the victims of the Genocide of Armenians and Assyrians. The unprecedented monument was opened by the Mayor of Diyarbakir, Abdullah Demirtas. “We, the Kurds, apologize to the Armenians and Assyrians for the actions by our ancestors in 1915. We will continue to fight for compensation to the murdered,” said Demirtas.

The Turkish media have been publishing more and more materials that acknowledge that today’s Turkey is not only a country of Turks, but also other native peoples, like Armenians and Greeks.

Suddenly, a retrial resumed in the case of Hrant Dink, a prominent Turkish Armenian journalist and human rights advocate, who was assassinated in 2007. An Istanbul court issued a warrant for the arrest of Erhan Tuncel, a former police informer and a key suspect in the Dink murder case who may link some government agencies to the murder plot, according to Hürriyet Daily News.

Another event of no less significance has taken place in Egypt, which, after the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi last summer, may become the first Muslim country in the world to recognize the genocide of Armenians in Turkey. According to European newspapers, this event may occur after the unprecedented step of Egyptian lawyer, director of the Institute of the People’s Front in Egypt Muhammad Saad Khairallah, who presented a legal claim regarding this matter.

The hearing in this case will begin in the Cairo Court on November 5. The announcement was made during a televised debate that was followed by millions of Egyptian viewers.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more and more often called a loser in the world press. It is noted that Erdogan’s policies have led to the isolation of Turkey and an increased likelihood of its fragmentation or federalization. Turkey is still actively involved in all relevant processes taking place in the world, but experts say that civil disturbances that do not subside in this country may one day turn Turkey into the next flashpoint.

This seems especially true against the backdrop of relations between the West and Iran that have become noticeably warmer of late: European countries have lifted the earlier imposed sanctioned against a number of Iranian banks, there are reports that a historic meeting between the presidents of the United States and Iran may take place at the forthcoming session of the United Nations in New York. Earlier, the presidents of the two estranged nations exchanged messages.

Against this background, the isolation of Turkey and its regional ally Azerbaijan is becoming more evident. Both countries have already taken a defensive position, trying to keep at least what they already have.

This increases the degree of aggressiveness of these two countries. Azerbaijan, for example, stated yesterday that it will not withdraw snipers from the line of contact near Nagorno-Karabakh until the end of the war. But such withdrawal is a demand of the international community.