Regional Intricacy: Analysts see impact of situation in Turkey on Caucasus affairs

The situation in Turkey that is going through some internal political upheavals and is having serious problems with Kurds cannot but have its influences on the situation in the Caucasus where Azerbaijan appears to have been deprived of much of Ankara’s attention, including in terms of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

On November 1, Turkey as well as Azerbaijan are going to hold parliamentary elections. International experts already note some irreversible changes in the region that also impact the situations in Armenia and in the Karabakh settlement.

The main difference, of course, is the fact that an interim government has been formed in Turkey where for the first time in history representatives of Kurdish parties have been involved. Experts say that in Turkey, according to the results of elections, a government will be formed where Turks will lose their centuries-long unitary nature or the country will be split into ethnic parts.

Even now, according to experts, the Turkish government does not control a number of Kurdish-populated areas.

The areas that are called ‘Kurdish-populated’ are mostly part of Anatolia, in other words, Western Armenia. The creation in these territories of new states will bring a major transformation. In particular, many Armenian experts, such as Ara Papian and Ruben Safrastyan, say that redistribution of current borders in the region (the creation of Kurdistan in Iraq, the possible partition of Syria and Turkey) will lead to the actualization of the 1920 Treaty of Sevres. Under this agreement, Armenia had been provided with areas that are now called ‘Kurdish-populated’. This agreement was designed at the time by the Americans, who now appear to be trying to reshape the region according to their vision.

The possibility of Turkey’s partition or federalization cannot but affect all regional processes, including the Karabakh settlement.

Turkey and Azerbaijan not only continue to keep Armenia and Karabakh in the blockade, but Azerbaijan has launched a blatant shelling of the border areas of sovereign Armenia. There is an opinion that Azerbaijan and Turkey are trying to involve Armenia into an open war so that using the situation they can neutralize the Armenian factor in the future processes of the partition of Turkey.

Turkey is waging an open war against its own Kurdish population, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasingly receiving complaints from the Western community because of his support for terrorists of the Islamic State, although Turkey has officially joined the coalition against ISIS. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also hears criticism, and it is no coincidence that Turkey and Azerbaijan are trying to establish close military cooperation. Now in Azerbaijan under the pretext of long-term exercises Turkish Air Forces are deployed, and the Tavush Marz of Armenia is also being shelled from Turkish arms.

Russia’s position is interesting in this situation. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, recently visited Baku and offered to Azerbaijan to purchase a new batch of weapons. In fact, Moscow joins the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem against Armenia. And it is not excluded that Moscow torpedoes the expected claims from Armenia to Turkey and Azerbaijan.